Census figures: where the discrepancies lie

Concerns have been raised about the results of the 2011 census, due to the notable
discrepancies. According to Rob Dorrington of the Centre for Actuarial Research at the
University of Cape Town and a member of an expert evaluation team of the Statistics Council,
the population growth revealed by the census results was inconsistent with fertility, mortality,
and survival estimates [The Sunday Independent 4 November 2012].

The 2011 census recorded almost 1.2 million (2.3%) more people than had been projected in
the 2011 mid-year population estimates. Male and female numbers were 673 755 (2.7%) and
510 048 (2%) higher than previously estimated. Both the census results and the mid-year
population estimates are published by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA).

In proportional terms, the biggest difference between the two reports was in the 80+ age
category. The census registered 232 432 more over 80s than had previously estimated, a
62.1% increase.

However, some age groups were overestimated in the previous projections. Most notably,
there were 723 805 (13.6%) fewer 10-14 year-olds in the census than had been previously
estimated.

Of the 1.2 million additional people counted in the census, 794 662 were African (an increase
of 2%), 135 611 were coloured (an increase of 3%), 12 063 were Indian (an increase of 0.9%),
and 21 013 were white (an increase of 0.5%).

The statistician-general, Pali Lehohla, said that the high outcome of the census was based on
a ‘statistical, well established sampling procedure’ [Business Report 5 November 2012].

No matter what the excuses are... the fact is that we still seem to have questionable figures, which make it difficult for government to plan efficiently going forward.